University of Illinois Department of Statistics

presents

 

Zhongjun Qu

Department of Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

"An Analytical Evaluation of the Log-Periodogram Estimate in the Presence
of Level Shifts and its Implications for Stock Returns Volatility"

 

Recently, there has been an upsurge of interest on the possibility of confusing long memory and structural changes in level. Many studies have shown that when a stationary short memory process is contaminated by level shifts the estimate of the fractional differencing parameter is biased away from zero and the autocovariance function exhibits a slow rate of decay, akin to a long memory process. We analyze the properties of the autocorrelation function, the periodogram and the log-periodogram estimate of the memory parameter when the jump component is specified by a simple mixture model. Our theoretical results explain many findings reported and
uncover new features. Simulations are presented to highlight the properties of the distributions and to assess the adequacy of our approximations. Also, we explain how the limit distribution changes as the number of frequencies used varies, unlike the case with a pure fractionally integrated model. We confront this practical implication to daily SP500 absolute returns and their square roots over the period 1928-2002. Our findings are remarkable, the autocorrelations and the path of the log periodogram estimates clearly follows patterns that would obtain if the true underlying process was one of short-memory contaminated by level shifts instead of a pure fractionally integrated process. A simple testing procedure is also proposed, which reinforces this
conclusion.

 


Thursday, September 21, 2006

4:00 PM

Room 2 Illini Hall

 

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