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Andrew Barron
Department of Statistics
Yale University
"The Interplay of Information Theory,
Probability, and Statistics"
Information theory is playing a role in the
solutions to a growing number of probability and statistics
questions. Central to these developments are quantities of
information, especially relative entropy and mutual information,
and associated tools of Shannon information theory traditionally
applied to problems of data compression and communication channel
capacity. We will list and briefly discuss a number of the
probability and statistics questions that information theory
impacts. With audience help we will pick out two or three of these
to discuss at somewhat greater length. Here are three for which
there has been substantial recent attention. First, in probability
theory, relative entropy captures the exponent of tail
probabilities (also called large deviation
probabilities) for empirical averages of Markov chains. This has
implications not only for error exponents in communications and
hypothesis testing in statistics, but also in determining which
Markov chain Monte Carlo samplers (Gibbs, Metropolis, stochastic
gradient) rapidly provide accurate path average computations of
integrals as arise in statistical mechanics, in optimal Bayes
estimates (posterior means), and in machine
learning (e.g. artificial neural nets). Secondly, information
quantities recently have been used to give demonstration of the
monotonicity of convergence in central limit theorems, for which
we now have simple proofs. Thirdly, in the field of statistics,
information theory captures large sample efficiency and minimaxity
in both parameter estimation and
nonparametric function estimation problems. In essence the minimax
rate of function estimation is related to the Shannon capacity of
an associated channel.
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