Research Papers:

1. Nonlinear Time Series, Dynamical Systems, and Clouds
   • Bailey, B.A., Doney, S.C., Lima, I.D. (2004) "Quantifying the Effects of Dynamical Noise on the Predictability of Simple Ecosystem Model ." Environmetrics, 15, 337-355. (pdf)
   • Bailey, B.A., Doney, S.C. (2001) "Quantifying the Effects of Noise on Biogeochemical Models." Computing Science and Statistics, 32, 447-453 paper (ps) and figures (ps) or paper (pdf) and figures (pdf)
   • Bailey, B.A., Ellner, S., and Nychka, D.W. (1997) "Chaos with Confidence: Asymptotics and Applications of Local Lyapunov Exponents." Proceedings of the Fields/CRM Workshop on Nonlinear Dynamics and Time Series: Building a Bridge Between the Natural and Statistical Sciences, American Mathematical Society, p. 115-133. preprint (ps) or preprint (pdf)
   • Bailey, B.A., Nychka, D.W., and Ellner, S. (1997) "A Central Limit Theorem for Local Lyapunov Exponents." (submitted).
   • Bailey, B.A., Berliner, L.M., Collins, W., and Kielh, J.T. (1997) "Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Cloud Cover." (manuscript).
   • Bailey, B.A.(1996) "Local Lyapunov Exponents: predictability depends on where you are." Nonlinear Dynamics in Econometrics, Proceedings of the Ninth International Symposium in Economic and Econometrics, eds. Barnett, W., Kirman, A., and Salmon, M., Cambridge University Press, p. 343-357.
   
   
2. Model Validation
   • Nychka, D.W., Davis, J., and Bailey, B.A.(1995)"A Comparison of the Regional Oxidant Model with Observational Ozone Data." National Institute of Statistical Sciences Technical Report, National Institute of Statistical Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC.